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ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF OIL AND NON-OIL EXPORT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

Abstract

This study investigated the role of oil and non-oil exports on the Nigerian economy over the period of 1981 to 2015. The ADF and PP unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response functions (IRF) and variance decomposition (VD) were used in the analysis of the study. The cointegration test indicates that GDP, Oil and Non-oil exports were cointegrated. The Granger causality test indicates short run unidirectional causality running from oil export to GDP. There are also bidirectional long run causality relationship between oil export and GDP, and unidirectional long run causality running from non-oil export to GDP. The study result indicates that oil exports have inverse relationship with economic growth while non-oil exports have positive relationship with economic growth.

Key words: Economic growth, oil exports, non-oil exports and Granger causality