DETERMINANTS OF STOCK PRICE FLUCTUATION IN NIGERIAN QUOTED FIRMS

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DETERMINANTS OF STOCK PRICE FLUCTUATION IN NIGERIAN QUOTED FIRMS

Chapter One

Introduction

Background of the Study

In recent years, the Nigerian economy has been subjected to a series of political and social reforms, political and economic. Before a decade after independence, the country was largely agrarian and various regional governments and largely achieved food security. Years, the establishment of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (formerly the Lagos Stock Exchange) encouraged private capital venture for development and growth in order to develop the capital market. Past and present scholars have estimated that the investment that promotes economic growth and development requires long-term funding, much longer than the period during which most investors are willing to commit their funds. In the capital market, both local and foreign investors to provide long-term funds in exchange for long-term financial assets offered by users of funds. Ologunde (2006) said that the market for both new issues (primary) market and secondary market embrace.

In general, the financial markets are the heart of any economy since their ability to respond instantly to changing the fundamental problems in all countries. In addition, it encourages savings and real investment in a healthy economic environment.

Aggregate savings are geared toward real investment that increases the capital stock and therefore the country’s economic growth. These capital market attributes allow the spirit of discernment to feed the momentum of such an economy. Nigeria Stock Exchange is not an exemption because it is expected to be influenced by external shocks, which are outside the domain of the capital market. External shocks are the macroeconomic indicators that should cause variation in the movement of stock prices. Maku and Atanda (2009) argued that these changes often result in the size and movement of share prices, the market index and market liquidity. Nevertheless, it is a known fact that market liquidity is an important attribute of the development of the stock market. Liquid markets essentially improve the mobilization and allocation of capital and thus improve growth prospects in the long term installation. Since liquidity allows investors to quickly adjust and at minimal cost, it performs less risky investments (Omole, 2007.) The recent financial crisis has made the Nigerian capital market illiquid, which caused the trend the decline in the market. In turn, the capital is becoming less attractive for long-term investors and very risky to invest. The perceived risks associated with investing in the Nigerian market are high. Because of this risk, foreign investors are patronizing other emerging markets, even before the recent global financial crisis.

According Nwude (2004), the capital market is a market for securities, where companies and governments can raise long- term assets. It is distinct as a market where cash is delivered for periods longer than one year, as the collection of short-term assets takes place on the cash market. The capital market includes the stock (shares) and the bond market (debt). Basically, financial regulators undertake surveillance of capital markets in their designated jurisdictions to protect investors against fraud, among other functions (Onoh, 2002).

The stock market has become an important market to play a vital role in the economic prosperity that the promotion of capital formation and support economic growth. Stock markets are more than a place to trade in securities; they function as a facilitator between savers and users of capital through the pooling of funds, risk sharing, and transfer of wealth. Stock markets are essential for economic development, as they guarantee the stream of assets to the most productive investment opportunities (Kurihara, 2006).

Stock Price fluctuation implies that share prices change because of supply and demand. If more people want to buy a stock (demand) than offer it (supply), then the cost goes up. Conversely, if more people wanted to sell a stock to buy, there would be more supply than demand, and prices fall (Joshua, 2014).

The inability to understand the issues surrounding the share price and its determinants has been the scourge of the financial provision of many societies today investor participation in the assets of a business is usually affected by its history of stock price; that sums up the quality of the company’s operations. It is pertinent to note that, after more than thirty-five years of exchanging on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, brokers must still evolve an acceptable and uniform pricing formula for listed securities on the exchange. There are cases of brokers justify movement in the price of a security solely because of demand or customer statement without reference to other parameters of the pricing.

In addition, managers of many businesses today are unaware of the effects of the composition of the Board on the action (Heaps, 2010). The market is characterized by poor infrastructure, thus causing delays in the completion of transactions between issuing houses, brokers, registrars, investors and their banks mainly due to the inadequacy of our services postal and telegraph. Hence this study aims to examine the effect of financial performance, dividend payments and leverage on the share price of companies operating on the market of the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

Stock prices are the basis for determining whether a business is the break even or not. These prices are the relevant performance measures for stakeholders; therefore, the value attached to them is so important for current and potential investors in the capital market. The data were drawn from the financial statements of companies listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. Data analysis will be from ordinary least squares (OLS). The results suggest that earnings per share, book value per share and dividend cover are used as factors in determining stock prices. The results of the study therefore requests the recommendation that the government and policy makers in Nigeria should implement stricter rules, supported by legislation that will improve the information presented in the financial statements of listed companies Nigeria Stock Exchange and compelling listed companies to adopt IFRS. In addition, the accounting information reported in the capital market must constantly reposition themselves in response to changing expectations. This implies that it should be considered as an open system and in other words, the ratings for both indoor and outdoor environment should allow constant repositioning of accounting information.

According to Joshua, (2014) the stock market is basically a mammoth closeout – just rather than collectibles and family heirlooms, it’s ownership in companies is at stake shares trade at places called exchange. During these exchanges, traders buy and sell shares of companies. Usually the cost of an offer is dictated by supply and request. For example, if there are more people who want to buy a stock than sell it, the price will be driven up because those actions are rare and people will pay a higher price for them. On the other hand, if there are many shares to sell and are not interested in buying, the price will quickly drop. For this reason, the market may appear to fluctuate generally. Regardless of the possibility that there is nothing amiss with an organization, a shareholder who wants to sell millions of shares at a time can drive the share price down, simply because there not enough people interested in buying the stock, it is trying to sell. Since there is no genuine interest for the organization he sells, he is forced to accept a lower price (Joshua, 2014).

STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Stock price fluctuates in the opposite direction of its worth. Novel verdicts or evaluation improvements and benefit the prediction of change in share price. It is impossible to invent a model able to predict the price change of the action precisely because the stock price is going around rather than its value is for the most part. It makes no sense to test a financial model bases or assessment on the accuracy of forecasting stock price in most cases. Although it would be unthinkable to wait an accurate prediction, the prediction can undoubtedly underpin the investment decision of relevant decisions and regulatory policy.

Companies of reality can respond to events or changes in their operations. Such as fierce competition from other companies, changes in demand from (companies’ sales customers), in particular the cost of changing input costs or variable costs, the change in price of the product in force the market, etc. These changing circumstances affect the profits of the companies and their stock value and prices.

Stock prices change every day in light of business sector strengths. By this we imply that share prices change because of supply and demand. If more people need to buy a stock (demand) than sell it (supply), at that point the price goes up. Conversely, if more people wanted to sell a stock to buy, there would be more supply than demand, and prices fall.

Understand supply and demand is easy. What is challenging to comprehend is what makes people like a specific stock and like another stock. Which is to determine what news is positive for the company and what news is negative. There are numerous responses to this issue and pretty much any speculator you ask has their own particular thoughts and methodologies.

The most important factor that affects the value of a company is earnings. The gains are the result of a business does, and in the long term No business can survive without them. It bodes well when you consider it. On the off chance that an organization never makes money, it will not stay in business.

Stock prices can rise and fall for a countless of reasons. When looking at short-term changes in the price of a stock, you must recognize if the price is the result of a catalyst or just the day to day fluctuations of trading. If the catalyst is a serious threat to the profitability of a company, it may be prudent to sell (or at least reduce the position) the stock, even at a misfortune.

Then again, if an impetus diminishes the cost of a stock and has no impact on the consequences of a substantial business or future development, consider buying at the lowest price to get a good deal.

Prices change in the long term, mainly in response to the growth of a particular stock earnings and earnings. Stock prices also move in the long term based on the actions of the Federal Reserve and the general state of the economy in these things influence the results of the companies in the long term. Ignore changes in the Fed and the economy at a peril. The essential things to get a handle on about this subject are the accompanying:

• At the most fundamental level, the supply and demand on the market that determines the stock price.

• Price times the number of outstanding shares (market capitalization) is the value of a company. By simply comparing the price of the shares of two companies is meaningless.

• Theoretically, earnings are what affect the valuation of company investors, but there are other indicators that investors use to predict stock prices. Remember, its feelings, attitudes and expectations of investors that affect ultimately the stock price.

• There are several theories that attempt to explain how stock prices move as they do. Unfortunately, there is not a theory that can explain everything.

Significance of the Study

The stock market plays an imperative heroine in the economy of a country an important role in the allocation of resources, both directly as a source of funding and as a determinant of the value of companies and its ability to loan (Tease 2009). It provides boulevard for investment and capital formation and can act as an indicator or predictor of the overall economic situation. It functions as an intermediary between savers and companies seeking additional funding for business expansion, which led to industrialization and the creation of employment opportunities leading to better living standards of society. It provides a platform for individuals, governments, businesses and organizations to exchange and put resources into investment funds through the buy of shares. A stock market is very important for sustainable economic growth, because it can ensure the flow of resources to the most productive investment opportunities. So, as an important institution of a country, the stock market is a big concern for investors, stakeholders and government. The price of a share market is a key factor affecting the decision to invest in the stock investors. The share price is one of the most important indicators available to investors for their decision to invest or not in a given action (Gill 2012). The share price on the market are not static, rather it changes every day. The most obvious factors that influence are factors of demand and supply. The price of a commodity is affected by both microeconomic and macroeconomic factors. According Gompers (2003), in the securities market, whether primary or secondary, the stock price may be strongly influenced by a number of environmental micro including dividend per share factors, the book value (value of assets ) of the company, earnings per share, price earnings ratio and dividend cover etc.

The study adds to the current collection of learning, as well as make up for the scarcity of scholarly papers in Nigeria on companies’ financial structure and their market values. Also, the findings of this study will aid an effective also, productive financing choice of firms in Nigeria. Experts and financial analysts will find the study helpful in their financial and advisory services to failing and distressed companies.

It is believed that the proposition from this study will help the masses have more knowledge on what Stock Price Fluctuation is all about.

Purpose of Study

The general purpose is to investigate determinants of Stock Price Fluctuation in Nigerian Quoted Firms,

Specifically the study sought to:

• examine causes of stock price fluctuation in Nigerian quoted firms

• discover the variation in financial structure of Nigerian quoted firms

• establish the efficacy of financial regulators in undertaking surveillance of capital markets

• identify stock price fluctuation problems in Nigerian quoted firms. Stock Price Fluctuation

Research questions

• How does stock price fluctuation affect the performance of Nigerian quoted firms?

• What are the internal and external financial regulations mechanisms in place regarding stock price fluctuation problems?

• What are the systemic problems militating against stock price In Nigerian quoted firms?

• What are the solutions to such problems?

Research Hypothesis

 Is there a significant relationship between stock price fluctuation and the performance of Nigerian quoted firms?

 Is there a significant influence of internal and external financial regulations on stock price?

 Is there significant systemic problems militating against stock price In Nigerian quoted firms?

Scope of the Study

The scope of the study is restricted to the Determinants of Stock Price Fluctuation in Nigerian Quoted Firms with regard to five selected firms listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) which comprises of Dangote Flour Mills Plc, Flour Mills Nigeria plc, Guinness Nigeria plc, Honeywell Flour Mills plc, and Nestle Nigeria Plc

Limitations of the Study

Constraints are:

 Time: The time has been a major obstacle which lobbied against the objectives of research, especially as the researcher had to carry out in the middle of the academic pressure.

 Finance: Finance is the thread of life of any business and any research, posed a major obstacle that greatly militated against the realization of the acquisition of stationery necessary for work.

 Negative attitude of some people interviewed some respondents are not willing to give the required information is necessary due to the fact that they think the research is to know about their private lives, this has militated against the achievement of objectives researchers.

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