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TREND ANALYSIS OF THE CONTRIBUTION OF AGRICULTURE TO THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT OF NIGERIA (1960 – 2012)
Abstract: This study examined the pattern and contribution of agriculture to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Nigeria within a time frame of 53 years (1960-2012). Time-series data emanating from National Bureau of Statistic (NBS), Central Bank of Nigeria, National Planning Commission (NPC) and CIA Factbook were used and analysed using trend and regression analysis. The results showed that the share of agriculture to the total GDP had a downward trend, yet maintaining a clear dominance over other sectors from 1960-1975. Further analysis depicted an undulating trend, intertwining with the industrial sector from 1976-1989. The regression results showed that agriculture has a positive relationship with GDP and contributes significantly with a coefficient of 0.664, implying that a percentage increase in the contribution of agriculture can increase the GDP by 66.4 percent higher than any other sector. This cumulative effect of agriculture on GDP clearly affirmed the dominance of the sector’s contribution to the GDP of Nigeria. The study therefore recommended that government should create an enabling environment by increasing the budgetary allocation, friendly policies framework for strong and efficient agricultural sector that can accelerate the attainment of Nigeria’s dream of achieving the targeted growth rate and the proposed vision of becoming one among the 20 leading world economies by the year 2020.
Keywords: Trend analysis, Agriculture, Gross Domestic Product, Nigeria.