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THE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA
Agriculture is both the main sector that is expected to provide employment to large segments of the population and the key to sustained economic growth of the countries. This study p res en ted an empirical analysis of the effect of Agricultural Expo rts on economic growth of Nigeria. The model built fo r th e s tu d y p ro x y g ro s s d o m es tic p ro d u c t as th e en d o g en o u s v ariab le m eas u rin g ec o n o m ic g ro w th as a fu n c tio n o f real ex c h an g e rate, real A g ric u ltu ral ex p o rts , In d ex o f Trad e O p en n e s s an d In flatio n rate as the exogenous variables. Annual time series data was gathered from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical bulletin, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), CBN Economic and Financial Review Bulletin and CBN annual reports spanning from 1970 to 2012. The study used econometric techniques of Augmented D ic k ey -Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Johansen co-integration test and error correction method (ECM) for empirical analysis. The results of unit root suggested that index of trade openness and inflation rate was stationary at a level while real gross domestic product, real exchange rate and real agricultural exports were integrated at order one. The co-integration test showed that, long-run equilibrium relationship exist among the variables. The findings from the error correction method show that Agricultural Export has contributed positively to the Nigerian economy. The study recommended th at, the government reform agenda should be systematic and sustained irrespective of the professional background of the successive presidents of the country and th at; Agricultural production should be m o re d es ired th an o th er s ec to rs th at are ex h au s tive in n atu re (o il) evid en c ed to th e rec en t fall in p ric e o f c ru d e o il w h ich h as ren d ered N ig eria in ec o n o m ic s h am b les .
K ey words: A gricultural ex ports, econom ic grow th, trade openne ss, D utch disease and ex change rate.