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AN ANALYTICAL STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF FLUCTUATING OIL PRICES ON OPEC ECONOMIES
Abstract
The present study is undertaken to analyze the impact of changing oil prices on macroeconomic factors of OPEC economy which constitutes eighty one percent of the world proven crude oil reserves and has forty percent market share. Brent Crude Oil Spot Price FOB (Dollars per barrel) is the independent variable which is regressed against the dependent variables: GDP at current market price, exports, current account and exchange rate from 2007 to 2014. Though decline in oil prices has significant macroeconomic, financial and policy implications, the results of the present study states that changes in oil prices do not significantly impact the economic indicators of OPEC economies as lower oil prices reduce energy costs and generates changes in real income benefitting oil importers. Increase in oil prices have been followed by rising inflation and recessions in many countries.
Index Terms—Crude Oil, OPEC, macroeconomic factors, fluctuating.